摘 要

风险是客观存在的。现如今，全球经济逐渐一体化、市场经济日益成熟,风险呈现出来的双重性更加的明显,它有给企业带来利益的可能,也有造成损失的可能。目前,大多数投资者在投资方面，风险意识匮乏，对投资风险的了解不够透彻,严重忽视风险评价的重要性。而且现有的评估投资风险的方法比较传统,对复杂的投资项目用这些方法很难准确地评价投资项目风险的大小。如果风险防范不能有效的进行,将会导致企业投资失误,最终给企业和社会带来损失。

目前在我国社会经济发展中，中小型企业扮演的角色越来越重要，企业在发展中会被投资风险影响着。为了降低中小型企业的投资风险，此论文用案例来分析，以规避投资的风险，提高经济收益为目标，运用概率分析和肯定当量法来分析Coco’s cake私人订制的投资风险，以求找到Coco’s cake私人订制投资的最有效方法，改善其投资环境。

关键词：投资风险；风险评价；中小企业；案例分析。

An Analysis of Investment Risks in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises——Taking Private Coco’s Cake as an Example

ABSTRACT

The risks are objective.Nowadays, the global economic integration, the market economy gradually matures, the dualism of the risk appears more obvious, it is of benefit to the enterprise may, also has the possibility of loss.Therefore, the evaluation and management of risk is attracting more and more attention.At the same time, because of the uncertain future of investment, it can also benefit investors, or lose.At present, most investors are lack of risk awareness in terms of investment, lack of understanding of investment risk, and seriously ignore the importance of risk assessment.Moreover, the existing investment risk assessment methods are mostly traditional evaluation methods, which are difficult to accurately assess the risk of investment projects in complex investment projects.If the risk prevention cannot be carried out effectively, it will lead to the failure of enterprise investment, which will eventually bring losses to the enterprise and society.

At present, the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises in China's social and economic development cannot be ignored. Investment risks affect the development of enterprises. In order to reduce the investment risk of small and medium-sized enterprises, this paper uses cases to analyze, in order to avoid investment risks, improve economic returns as the goal, use probabilistic analysis and affirmative equivalence method to analyze Coco's cake private custom investment risk, in order to find Coco's Cake The most effective method of private custom investment to improve its investment environment.

Key words: Investment risk; Risk assessment; Small and medium-sized enterprises; Case analysis.

目 录

1引言……………………………………………………………………………1

1.1选题的背景及目的…………………………………………………………………1

1.1.1 选题背景……………………………………………………………………………1

1.1.2 选题目的……………………………………………………………………………1

1.2国内外相关研究文献综述……………………………………………………………1

1.2.1 国内外研究现状……………………………………………………………………1

1.2.2 研究评述……………………………………………………………………………3

1.3本章总结…………………………………………………………………………4

2投资风险的概述…………………………………………………………5

2.1投资风险的基本概念…………………………………………………………5

2.2投资风险等级划分……………………………………………………………5

2.3中小企业的发展历程与现状…………………………………………………5

2.3.1 中小企业发展历程………………………………………………………………5

2.3.2 中小企业发展现状………………………………………………………………6

2.4中小企业的投资风险…………………………………………………………6

2.4.1 中小企业投资风险的影响因素…………………………………………………6

2.4.2 中小企业投资风险的表现形式…………………………………………………7

2.4.3 中小企业投资风险的规避………………………………………………………8

3中小企业的投资风险评价…………………………………………………………10

3.1投资风险评价的目的…………………………………………………………10

3.2投资风险评价的原则…………………………………………………………10

3.3投资风险评价的一般方法…………………………………………………………10

4案例分析………………………………………………………………………………12

4.1 Coco’s cake私人订制的背景分析………………………………………………12

4.2 Coco’s cake私人订制基于投资风险评价指标投资风险评价……………………12

4.2.1 概率分析…………………………………………………………………14

4.2.2 肯定当量法………………………………………………………………16

4.3 Coco’s cake私人订制投资风险产生的原因………………………………………19

4.4 我国中小企业风险规避的措施…………………………………………………21

结论…………………………………………………………………………………………………23

致谢………………………………………………………………………………………………24

参考文献…………………………………………………………………………………………25

表一 2017年销售收入汇总表……………………………………………………………………………26

表二 2017年固定资产折旧计算表………………………………………………………………………27

表三 2017年设备投资表…………………………………………………………………………………28

表四 2017年利润表…………………………………………………………………………………29

1. 引言

1.1 选题的背景及目的

1.1.1选题背景

18世纪60年代，以工作机的诞生为标志的第一次工业革命爆发,加大了社会生产力的创造，远超过去。由于电力技术在实践中的广泛应用,人类在第二次工业革命期间取得了不容忽视的成就。在历史进程中不可小觑的第三次工业革命是一次直到今天还时时刻刻影响着我们、不断促进社会进步的科技革命。如今，由于投资领域的迅速扩展以及风险投资规模的不断增大,风险投资作为一种有效的投资形式,对中小企业的成长、新型经营业理念的发展等产生了巨大的影响。