摘 要

本文基于1998-2016的我国农村居民人均可支配收入和农村居民人均消费的中国统计年鉴的相关数据为研究对象，首先通过线性回归模型证明收入与消费存在线性关系，然后利用多元回归分析将我国农村居民人均可支配收入细化为工资性收入，结构性收入，转移性收入和财产性收入四个组成部分，并且利用ELES模型将农村居民人均消费也具体化到八大消费类型（食品烟酒，衣着，居住，生活用品及服务，交通通信，教育文化娱乐，医疗保健 ，其他用品及服务）从收入与消费的结构组成及其变化深入分析我国农村收入与消费之间的线性关系。而研究表明，农村收入确实对于消费存在影响，并且我们可以通过四种收入类型中的财产性收入和转移性收入以及八大消费类型中教育文化娱乐和交通通信的角度来提出对于促进我国农村消费的有效建议。

关键字：收入结构；消费结构；变化幅度；物价水平

Study on the Relationship between Farmers 'Income and

Farmers 'consumption

ABSTRACT

Based on the data of the Chinese statistical yearbook on per capita disposable income of rural residents and per capita consumption of rural residents from 1998 to 2016, this paper first proves the on-line relationship between income and consumption through linear regression model. Then, using the multivariate regression analysis, the per capita disposable income of rural residents in China is refined into four components: wage income, structural income, transfer income and property income, and the per capita consumption of rural residents is also embodied in the eight major consumption types(food, tobacco, clothing, etc.). Living, household goods and services, transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, medical care, other goods and services) analyzes the linear relationship between income and consumption in rural China from the structure of income and consumption and its changes. And the research shows that rural income does have an impact on consumption, and we can go through the four income types of property And the research shows that rural income does have an impact on consumption. And we can put forward effective suggestions to promote rural consumption in China through the property income and transfer income in the four types of income, as well as the education, culture, entertainment and transportation communication in the eight types of consumption.

Key words: income structure; Consumption structure; Extent of change; Price level

目 录

1引言........................................................................1

1.1研究背景................................................................1

1.2研究意义................................................................1

1.3文献综述................................................................1

1.3.1国外研究综述......................................................1

1.3.2国内研究综述......................................................2

1.4研究目的和方法..........................................................2

1.5研究步骤................................................................3

2我国农村居民收入及消费结构现状分析..........................................4

2.1农村居民收入结构现状分析................................................4

2.1.1可支配收入的变化..................................................4

2.1.2农村居民可支配收入组成............................................5

2.1.3不同类型的可支配收入变化..........................................5

2.1.4相关结论..........................................................5

2.2农村居民消费结构现状分析................................................5

2.2.1农村居民消费结构组成..............................................5

2.2.2农村居民恩格尔系数变化............................................6

2.2.3农村居民消费结构变动趋势分析......................................6

2.2.4农村居民边际消费倾向分析..........................................7

2.2.5物价变动考量......................................................9

2.2.6相关结论.........................................................10

3模型建立与实证分析.........................................................11

3.1前提检验...............................................................11

3.1.1前提检验的意义...................................................11

3.1.2检验模型的选取...................................................11

3.1.3数据来源及其图示.................................................11

3.1.4检验分析.........................................................12

3.1.5回归模型的检验...................................................12

3.2模型建立与指标说明.....................................................12

3.2.1指标选取.........................................................12

3.2.2模型建立.........................................................13

3.2.3模型结果..................................... ...................14

3.2.4经济意义.........................................................14

3.2.5统计检验.........................................................14

3.3模型扩充...............................................................15

3.3.1模型扩充的原由...................................................15