摘 要

我国经济发展面临内需不足的严峻考验，居民消费普遍偏低，城镇居民消费高达农村居民消费的2.5倍，严重失衡。所以农村居民消费不足，制约了我国整体经济快速稳定发展。本文通过研究农村的人口结构以及消费现状，分析导致农村消费不足的原因，进而研究农村地区的人口结构与农村居民消费之间的影响关系，通过2006~2015年少儿抚养比、老年抚养比以及相关因素的面板数据，建立回归模型研究人口抚养比与农村居民消费间的关系，结论如下：（1）少儿抚养比数据呈现下降趋势，促进农村居民消费增加；（2）随着我国社会年龄结构日趋老龄化，老年抚养比逐年升高，与农村居民消费呈现负相关关系。因此，针对上述结论，本文提出改善农村消费的政策性建议，促进农村居民消费结构升级。

关键词：人口结构；农村居民消费；少儿抚养比；老年抚养比；回归模型

The relationship between population structure and rural residents' consumption in rural areas

ABSTRACT

China's economy is facing a lack of domestic demand in the development of the status quo, low consumption of residents, including urban residents consumption is about 2.5 times the consumption of rural residents. Therefore, the consumption of rural residents has become an important factor restricting the rapid development of China's overall economy. In this paper, through the analysis of rural population structure and consumption status, causes of inadequate consumption, and then study the influence between the rural population structure and the consumption of rural residents, through the 2006~2015 years children's dependency ratio, old dependency ratio and related factors of panel data, establish the Eviews model of population dependency ratio, and the consumption of rural residents the conclusion is: (1) the child dependency ratio showed a downward trend, has a positive effect on the consumption of rural residents; (2) with the social age structure of China is aging, the elderly dependency ratio is more and more high, there is a negative correlation between the consumption of rural residents. Therefore, in view of the above conclusions, this paper puts forward policy recommendations to improve rural consumption, and promote the upgrading of consumption structure of rural residents.

Key words：population structure；rural resident’consumption；child dependency ratio;elderly dependency ratio; Eviews model

目 录

1 引言………………………………………………………………………………………1

2 文献综述…………………………………………………………………………………………………2

3 现状分析…………………………………………………………………………………………5

3.1 我国农村人口年龄结构……………………………………………………………………5

3.1.1 我国农村人口年龄结构的现状与特点…………………………………………………5

3.1.2 人口抚养比的影响机制……………………………………………………………………6

3.2 农村居民消费现状…………………………………………………………………7

3.2.1 农村居民消费特点…………………………………………………………………8

3.2.2 农村居民消费不足的原因……………………………………………………………9

4实证分析………………………………………………………………………………………………11

4.1 模型构建及数据来源…………………………………………………………………11

4.1.1 模型的设定……………………………………………………………………………11

4.1.2 数据来源………………………………………………………………………………12

4.2 平稳性检验……………………………………………………………………………12

4.3 多重共线性分析……………………………………………………………………………13

4.4 模型结果分析……………………………………………………………………………15

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

结论与建议………………………………………………………………………………………………17

致谢………………………………………………………………………………………………………19

参考文献 …………………………………………………………………………………………………20

1 引言

近年来，中国经济的发展不断迈向新的高度，但是增长速度少有质的提升。中国的经济增长更多地依赖国际市场和投资，国内内需不足，尤其是农村居民的需求不足限制了其增长的速度。国务院会议曾指出，扩大内需能有效增加供给，是稳增长、增后劲、惠民生的驱动力量。而扩大内需的关键是有效提高农村居民的收入。由于消费观念的落后，农村居民更倾向于把钱用作储蓄以备不时之需，导致了农村“高储蓄，低消费”的收入结构，因此收入的提高能有效提高农村居民的实际购买力，进而促进消费。影响农村居民收入的因素很多，但在我国农村居民人口基数较大的人口国情下，研究农村人口结构与农村居民消费之间的关系，对于提升居民消费空间、改善农村居民生活水平，从而促进我国经济稳定快速增长具有重要意义。

2 文献综述