摘 要

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论，根据江苏省1991-2015年的时序数据，通过对农业经济增长与农业面源污染的指标进行回归分析，建立了较为理想的二次曲线模型。研究结果表明：（1）农林牧渔业总产值与农药使用量之间的“倒U型”曲线关系显著，并且目前已经过了转折点，处于“倒U型”曲线的右边。转折点为3728.07亿元，也就是在2009年出现转折，这说明随着经济增长，农药使用量将可能呈现减少的趋势，环境趋于改善。（2）农林牧渔业总产值与化肥施用折纯量之间的“倒U型”曲线关系显著，并且目前已经过了转折点，处于“倒U型”曲线的右边。转折点为4244.92亿元，也就是在2010年出现转折，环境趋于改善。（3）农林牧渔业总产值与农用塑料薄膜之间的“倒U型”曲线关系非常显著，转折点为8108.11亿元，目前还没过转折点，处于“倒U型”曲线左边的上升阶段。也就是说随着江苏农林牧渔业总产值的提高，农用塑料薄膜的使用量也在增加，将造成污染水平的提高。根据研究结果，选择具有针对性的农业面源污染的规制政策，实现江苏省农业经济增长与环境质量之间的协调发展。

关键词：农业面源污染；农业经济增长；环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）

An empirical analysis of the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth in Jiangsu Province

ABSTRACT

Based on the theory of the environmental Kuznets curve, according to the sequence data of 1991-2015 in Jiangsu Province, through regression analysis of the growth of agricultural economy and agricultural non-point source pollution index, established ideal quadratic curve model. The results show that:(1) the relationship between total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and the amount of pesticide used in the inverted U curve is significant, and it has already passed the turning point, which is on the right side of the inverted U curve. The turning point is 372 billion 807 million yuan, which is a turning point in 2009, which shows that with the economic growth, the use of pesticides will be reduced, the environment tends to improve.(2) the relationship between total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and the amount of pure U in the application of chemical fertilizer is significant, and it has already passed the turning point, which is on the right side of the inverted U curve. Turning point is 424 billion 492 million yuan, that is, a turning point in 2010, the environment tends to improve. (3) the total output value of animal husbandry and fishery and agricultural plastic film between the inverted "U" curve is very significant, the turning point is 810 billion 811 million yuan, there is not a turning point, in the inverted "U" curve on the left side of the stage. In other words, with the increase of the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in Jiangsu, the use of agricultural plastic film is also increasing, which will lead to the improvement of pollution level. According to the results of the study, select the targeted agricultural non-point source pollution regulation policy, to achieve the coordinated development of agricultural economic growth and environmental quality in Jiangsu province.

Key words：Agricultural non-point source pollution；Agricultural economic growth；Environmental Kuznets curve

目 录

1 引言………………………………………………………………………………………1

2 文献综述与问题的提出…………………………………………………………………2

2.1 国外文献综述…………………………………………………………………………2

2.2 国内文献综述…………………………………………………………………………2

2.3 总结………………………………………………………………………………………4

3 现状分析………………………………………………………………………………5

3.1 江苏省农业面源污染现状…………………………………………………………5

3.1.1 农药使用现状……………………………………………………………5

3.1.2 化肥施用现状……………………………………………………………6

3.1.3 农药塑料薄膜使用现状…………………………………………………7

3.2 江苏省农业发展现状……………………………………………………………8

3.2.1 农业经济发展战略………………………………………………………9

3.2.2 特色与规模的产业布局…………………………………………………9

3.2.3 农业资源与要素的基本格局……………………………………………10

3.3 两者之间的联系………………………………………………………………10

4 实证分析………………………………………………………………………………11

4.1 变量来源…………………………………………………………………………11

4.2 数据来源………………………………………………………………………11

4.3 模型建立………………………………………………………………………12

4.4 实证检验………………………………………………………………………12

4.5 检验结果分析……………………………………………………………………14

5 结论与政策建议…………………………………………………………………………16

5.1 结论…………………………………………………………………………16

5.2 政策建议………………………………………………………………………16

致谢 …………………………………………………………………………………18

参考文献 ……………………………………………………………………………19

1 引言

农业自古以来便是国民经济的基础。在农业发展的不同阶段，它对环境有不同的影响。在农业发展的初级阶段，生产力水平很低，经济水平很低，人类对环境的索取有限，对环境的影响很小。随着经济的发展，到中级阶段，生产力水平提高，人们对环境的影响加大，此时经济水平不高，没有力量改善环境，这时农业面源污染加剧。农业发展到高级阶段，经济对农业的依赖较小，人类有了环保意识，政府开始治理环境，其他产业也有能力参与农业环境治理，可以有效的解决农业面源污染问题，环境得到改善。

我国也始终在探索农业发展的道路，并在农业经济、科技和社会等各方面都取得了巨大成就。随着我国农业经济的迅速发展，农业产业化进程的加快，农业面源污染问题也愈发严重。大量的施用农药、化肥和农用薄膜等物质，形成从地下水、地表水、土壤到空气的立体交叉污染，造成农业资源与环境严重破坏，直接影响农产品质量和农民身体健康，影响了农业经济的可持续发展的基础。