摘 要

当前，我国经济正由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，绿色低碳模式将是我国未来经济发展的主要模式和国际主流模式；而人们所熟知的木材生产、加工以及消费活动就与碳的吸收和排放有密切关联，因此，要特别关注木材的生产、加工以及消费活动。木材的生产、加工以及消费活动能够有效缓解气候变暖和适应气候变化;然而，值得注意的是，木材的生产、加工以及消费活动不仅可以吸收碳而且可以释放出CO₂，如：木材的燃烧和腐烂。因此，根据所排放的碳量征收相应的碳税非常重要。本研究首先利用江苏省多期杉木价格的变化分析其趋势和影响因素，并加以预测；其次，结合江苏省的实际，探究碳税征收的可行性和困难，并推导出可能征收的税率；最后利用《2012年江苏省投入产出表》的投入产出数据，构建了基于杉木生产经营的可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型。该模型模拟不同的碳价格情景，探讨不同碳税税率对江苏省杉木价格的影响。主要研究结果如下：（1）当碳价格定为25元/吨时，征收碳税将使杉木价格上涨6.81％ ；（2）当碳价格定为400元/吨时，征收碳税将使杉木价格下降35.36％;(3)当碳价格为160元/吨时，杉木价格仅出现较小幅度下跌。并推知，碳价格在［75,100］这一区间内，江苏省杉木价格会保持稳定；如果碳税征收低于75元/吨，可能会导致杉木价格上涨；而高于120元/吨，则会导致杉木价格下跌。随着碳价格的提高，江苏省杉木价格呈现着先上升，慢慢保持稳定，再下降的趋势。根据这些结果，为政府当局考虑是否征收碳税以及谨慎制定碳税税率和征收方式提供参考，也为杉木生产者和加工企业在碳税征收的可预见性下的生产加工策略提供建议。

关键词：碳税；可预见性；碳税征收方式；杉木价格

The Impact of Carbon Tax Levy Expectation on Chinese Fir Price in Jiangsu Province

ABSTRACT

At present, China’s economy is shifting from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage. The green low-carbon model will be the main mode of economic development in the future and the international mainstream model; and the well-known timber production, processing, and consumption activities are related to the absorption of carbon. It is closely related to emissions. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the production, processing, and consumption of wood. Wood production, processing, and consumption activities can effectively mitigate climate warming and adapt to climate change; however, it is worth noting that the production, processing, and consumption of wood can not only absorb carbon but also release CO2, such as: wood burning and rot . Therefore, it is very important to impose a corresponding carbon tax based on the amount of carbon emitted. This study first used the changes in the prices of multiple Chinese firs in Jiangsu Province to analyze the trends and influencing factors, and made predictions. Second, combined with the actual conditions in Jiangsu Province, the feasibility and difficulties of carbon tax collection were explored, and the possible tax rates were derived; Using the input-output data of the “2012 Jiangsu Input-Output Table,” a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on Chinese fir production and management was constructed. The model simulates different carbon price scenarios and explores the impact of different carbon tax rates on the price of Chinese fir in Jiangsu Province. The main findings are as follows: (1) When the carbon price is set at 25 yuan/ton, the carbon tax will increase the price of Chinese fir by 6.81%; (2) When the carbon price is set at 400 yuan/ton, the carbon tax will make fir The price dropped by 35.36%; (3) When the carbon price was 160 yuan/ton, the price of Chinese fir fell only slightly. It is inferred that in the carbon price range of [75,100], the price of Chinese fir in Jiangsu Province will remain stable; if the carbon tax is levied below 75 yuan/ton, it may cause the price of Chinese fir to increase; and if it exceeds 120 yuan/ton, it will Caused the price of Chinese fir to fall. With the increase in the price of carbon, the price of Chinese fir in Jiangsu Province has risen first, and it has gradually remained stable and then declined. Based on these results, it provides a reference for government authorities to consider whether or not to impose a carbon tax, as well as a prudent carbon tax rate and collection method. It also provides recommendations for production and processing strategies for fir producers and processing companies under the predictability of carbon tax levy.

Key words：Carbon tax; Predictability; Carbon tax collection method; Fir price

目 录

1绪论…………………………………………………………………………………………………………1

1.1研究背景和意义……………………………………………………………………………………..1

1.1.1研究背景………………………………………………………………………………………1

1.1.2研究意义………………………………………………………………………………………1

1.2国内外研究成果综述………………………………………………………………………………..1

1.2.1国外研究成果综述……………………………………………………………………………1

1.2.2国内研究成果综述……………………………………………………………………………2

1.3主要研究内容与方法………………………………………………………………………………..4

1.3.1主要研究内容…………………………………………………………………………………4

1.3.2研究方法………………………………………………………………………………………4

2碳税的相关概念和理论基础………………………………………………………………………………4

2.1核心概念的界定……………………………………………………………………………………..4

2.1.1碳税……………………………………………………………………………………………4

2.1.2可预见性………………………………………………………………………………………5